【财经分析】过剩格局延续 碳酸锂何时见底？

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate price continues to decline due to supply-demand imbalances, and a price recovery is unlikely until high-cost mines reduce production [1][2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - From January to June, lithium carbonate spot prices initially rose slightly but then fell, with futures prices mirroring this trend. The highest price was 81,680 yuan/ton on January 20, while it dropped below 60,000 yuan/ton by the end of May [2]. - Supply is increasing as new lithium salt projects come online, such as a 40,000 tons/year lithium salt integration project by Salt Lake Co. and the Mariana lithium salt lake project by Ganfeng Lithium, which began production in February [2]. - Global lithium carbonate production is expected to reach approximately 1.6 million tons by 2025, while demand is projected at around 1.32 million tons, leading to a surplus of 280,000 tons [2]. Cost Structure of Lithium Extraction - The production costs for lithium extraction vary: spodumene extraction costs range from 50,000 to 80,000 yuan/ton, lithium mica extraction costs are between 55,000 and 65,000 yuan/ton, and salt lake extraction costs range from 30,000 to 50,000 yuan/ton [3]. - Salt lake extraction remains the most cost-effective method, with current market prices still above their production costs [3]. Cost Reduction Strategies - Lithium mica companies are actively reducing costs through process upgrades and improved yield, with some leading companies achieving profitability despite previous cost pressures [4]. - Innovations in lithium mica extraction technology are expected to significantly lower costs and improve lithium recovery rates, with reports indicating a 7-8% increase in recovery rates and reduced waste [4]. Market Outlook - The lithium carbonate price has not yet reached its bottom, with supply expected to grow steadily from June to August while demand enters a seasonal lull. Inventory levels for downstream users have decreased from around 14 days to 7 days [5]. - The market is anticipated to remain oversupplied until high-cost mines implement significant production cuts, which is crucial for stabilizing prices [5].