两则“小作文”扰动债市，收益率大幅下行后反弹

Core Viewpoint - The market is speculating on the inclusion of short- and medium-term government bonds in the reserve requirement, and there are high expectations for the central bank to restart government bond trading in the second half of the year [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - On June 18, government bond yields mostly rebounded after a significant decline, driven by improved sentiment in the bond market due to macroeconomic fundamentals and expectations of loose monetary policy [2][3]. - The bond market experienced fluctuations, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.09% and the 10-year main contract falling by 0.01% [2]. Group 2: Speculation on Policy Changes - There is ongoing debate regarding the inclusion of short-term government bonds in the reserve requirement, with uncertainty about its implementation and timing [3]. - Analysts suggest that the best window for the central bank to restart government bond trading is expected in the second half of the year, particularly in the third quarter [3][4]. Group 3: Economic and Funding Conditions - The market anticipates that the central bank will restart bond purchases due to significant upcoming maturities of interbank certificates of deposit and increased buying of short-term bonds by major banks [4][5]. - Recent actions by the central bank, including multiple announcements of reverse repos, indicate a supportive stance towards the funding environment, which has contributed to a recovery in the overall leverage in the bond market [5][6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The sentiment in the bond market is currently optimistic, with expectations of continued support from the central bank and a potential increase in net financing of government bonds in the third quarter [4][5]. - However, some analysts caution that the space for further declines in bond yields may be limited, particularly for the 10-year government bond yield, which faces resistance in the range of 1.5% to 1.6% [5].