Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao·2025-06-18 14:38Core Viewpoint - The securities industry is expected to see a recovery in performance in the second half of 2025, with a focus on high-growth firms with low valuations, well-structured leading comprehensive brokers, and those with potential for mergers and acquisitions [1][4]. Group 1: Industry Performance and Outlook - As of June 18, 2025, the A-share securities index has declined by 7.51% since the beginning of the year, but the industry's fundamentals continue to improve, supported by active trading and ongoing capital market reforms [2]. - Citic Securities forecasts a 17.3% year-on-year growth in net profit for the securities industry in 2025, with an annualized ROE expected to rise to 6% [2]. - Huatai Securities highlights that the new "National Nine Articles" and the accompanying "1+N" policy framework will foster a favorable long-term investment market ecosystem, benefiting the growth of securities firms [2]. Group 2: Mergers and Acquisitions - Recent mergers, such as Guotai Junan's absorption of Haitong Securities and the acquisition of Minsheng Securities by Guolian Securities, indicate a trend where large brokers consolidate to strengthen their positions, while smaller brokers can achieve rapid growth through acquisitions [3]. - Dongwu Securities suggests that mergers and acquisitions may drive supply-side reforms in the securities industry amid a backdrop of reduced fees [3]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Institutions recommend focusing on three investment themes: brokers expected to achieve high growth in mid-2025 with low valuations, leading comprehensive brokers with balanced business structures and strong professional capabilities, and brokers with potential for mergers and acquisitions [4]. - Citic Securities emphasizes that the combination of interest rate cuts and supportive policies will likely stabilize valuations in the securities sector, enhancing its resilience [4]. - The analysis of listed brokers indicates that the industry is undergoing significant transformation, with a focus on enhancing trading capabilities and diversifying asset management strategies [5].