Major Regional Bank Industry's Prospects Solid: 4 Stocks to Watch

Industry Overview - The Zacks Major Regional Banks industry includes the largest banks in the U.S. by assets, operating globally and heavily influenced by the nation's economic health [3] - These banks provide a wide array of financial services, including traditional banking, credit and debit cards, mortgage banking, wealth management, and investment banking, generating revenue from fees and commissions [3] Current Challenges - Weak asset quality is anticipated due to higher inflation from tariffs and modest economic expansion, leading to a marginal rise in loan demand [1][7] - Concerns over economic health and policy impacts are causing banks to build additional reserves to counter potential defaults and payment delays [7] Future Outlook - Once tariff-related uncertainties are resolved, net interest income (NII) and margins are expected to improve, benefiting the industry [1][4] - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rates may lead to lower deposit costs and a gradual improvement in lending scenarios [4] Growth Initiatives - Major banks are focusing on business restructuring and digitization to enhance profitability and reduce dependence on spread income [2][6] - Investments in artificial intelligence and partnerships with tech providers are part of the strategy to expand operations domestically and globally [6] Performance Metrics - The Zacks Major Regional Banks industry currently holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 98, placing it in the top 40% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating an optimistic outlook [8][10] - The industry has outperformed the S&P 500, with a collective stock increase of 17.4% over the past year compared to the S&P 500's 9.1% [12] Valuation Insights - The industry has a trailing 12-month price-to-tangible book ratio (P/TBV) of 2.18X, significantly lower than the S&P 500's 12.74X, indicating a discount compared to the broader market [15][17] Key Players - U.S. Bancorp (USB): Market cap of $67 billion, with an expected earnings growth of 8.3% for 2025 and 8.8% for 2026, driven by solid loan and deposit growth [23][20] - BNY Mellon (BK): Market cap of $63.4 billion, with anticipated earnings growth of 12.8% for 2025 and 13.1% for 2026, supported by strategic acquisitions and digitization efforts [29][26] - Truist Financial (TFC): Market cap of $51 billion, with expected earnings growth of 5.7% and 12.9% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, aided by loan growth and strategic restructuring [35][32] - Northern Trust (NTRS): Market cap of $21 billion, with projected earnings growth of 5.2% and 8.3% for 2025 and 2026, focusing on organic growth and expense management [41][38]