Core Insights - GSK stock has increased by 21.5% over the past six months, driven by strong performance in the Specialty Medicines unit, regulatory successes, and a positive long-term outlook despite challenges in the Vaccines unit and economic pressures [2][22]. Specialty Medicines Unit Performance - The Specialty Medicines unit has shown significant sales growth, with a 19% increase in 2024 and a 17% rise in Q1 2025, primarily due to successful launches in Oncology and long-acting HIV medicines [3][4]. - Key products driving growth include Nucala, Dovato, Cabenuva, Apretude, Jemperli, and Ojjaara, with expectations for low double-digit sales growth in 2025 despite the Inflation Reduction Act's impact [4][9]. - Specialty Medicines currently accounts for approximately 40% of GSK's sales and is projected to exceed 50% by 2031 [4]. Promising Pipeline Developments - GSK is increasing R&D investments in long-acting and specialty medicines across various therapeutic areas, including Respiratory, Immunology & Inflammation, Oncology, and HIV [5]. - Recent approvals include the pentavalent MenABCWY vaccine and Blujepa for UTI treatment, with Nucala receiving approval for COPD in May 2025 [5][6]. - GSK anticipates launching five new products in 2025, including Blenrep and depemokimab, with several already approved in the U.S. [7]. Vaccine Sales Challenges - Vaccine sales declined by 6% in Q1 2025, primarily due to lower demand for the RSV vaccine Arexvy and shingles vaccine Shingrix [8][10]. - Shingrix sales fell by 21% in Q1 2025, and Arexvy's global sales dropped by 57%, attributed to revised vaccination recommendations and challenges in reaching consumers [10][11]. - The company expects a low single-digit percentage decline in Vaccine sales for 2025 due to macroeconomic challenges and potential policy changes [12]. Stock Performance and Valuation - GSK stock has outperformed the industry and S&P 500, rising 20.1% year-to-date compared to a 4.0% industry increase [13]. - The stock trades at a forward P/E of 8.63, below the industry average of 15.63, indicating an attractive valuation relative to peers [17]. - Earnings estimates for 2025 have increased from $4.26 to $4.42 per share, reflecting analysts' positive outlook for future growth [20]. Future Growth Expectations - GSK anticipates over 7% sales growth and more than 11% core operating profit growth on a CAGR basis from 2021 to 2026, driven by Specialty Medicines and improvements in General Medicines [23]. - The company has resolved most Zantac litigations, alleviating a significant overhang on the stock [25].
GSK Stock Rises Almost 22% in 6 Months: Time to Buy, Sell or Hold?