安永：料点阵图仍显示到年底将有两次25个基点的降息

Core Viewpoint - EY economists predict that the Federal Reserve will maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% until the end of the year, with expectations of two 25 basis point rate cuts by year-end [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - Federal Reserve's Stance - Recent comments from the Federal Reserve indicate a wait-and-see approach due to increased uncertainty in the economic outlook, with no urgency to adjust policies [1] - The policy statement is expected to remain largely unchanged, reiterating that inflation is still "a bit high" and the labor market is "solid" with a "stable low" unemployment rate [1] - Interest Rate Projections - The median dot plot is anticipated to remain unchanged, with expectations of two 25 basis point cuts by the end of the year [1] - Further rate cuts are projected, with a decrease of 50 basis points to 3.4% in 2026 and another reduction to 3.1% in 2027 [1] - The policymakers' estimate for the long-term neutral interest rate is likely to remain at 3% [1]