美联储点阵图解读：2026年降息次数减少

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's dot plot indicates a reduction in the expected number of interest rate cuts in 2026 compared to previous forecasts, signaling a more cautious approach to monetary policy adjustments in the coming years [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections - Interest Rate Cuts Forecast - The Federal Reserve anticipates two rate cuts in 2025, each by 25 basis points, consistent with the March forecast - For 2026, the expectation is reduced to one rate cut of 25 basis points, down from two in the March forecast - In 2027, one rate cut of 25 basis points is still anticipated, aligning with earlier projections [1]. - Current Interest Rate Context - The median interest rate is projected to be in the range of 3.75%-4.00% by the end of 2025, which is 75 basis points lower than the current level of 4.25%-4.5% - Cumulatively, this would result in three rate cuts by the end of 2026, with two occurring in 2025 and one in 2026 [1].