CarMax Loan Delinquencies Tick Higher In May, Signaling Renewed Credit Strain

Core Viewpoint - Recent data from CarMax KMX Auto Finance indicates a rise in loan delinquencies and net losses, raising concerns about credit quality in the used auto lender's portfolio [1][4]. Summary by Sections Loan Performance - After two months of stability, loan delinquency and loss rates have worsened, with May showing a sharper increase than typical seasonal trends [2][3]. - The portfolio-level delinquency rate increased by 36 basis points sequentially, exceeding the historical seasonal average of 18 basis points [7]. - Year-over-year, the portfolio-level delinquency rate rose by 16 basis points, contrasting with a trailing three-month trend of a decrease of 2 basis points [8]. Credit Quality Concerns - The cumulative net loss rate increased by 52 basis points year-over-year, consistent with a trailing three-month trend of 48 basis points [8]. - Newer securitizations are not performing better than older vintages, with the delinquency rate for the most recent prime securitization trending higher than older vintages [5][4]. Analyst Insights - Analyst Scott Devitt maintains an Outperform rating on CarMax with a price target of $90, despite the concerns raised by the recent data [1]. - Devitt projects first-quarter revenue of $7.67 billion and earnings per share of $1.23 [10]. - The company is expected to face increased loan loss provisions as it targets lower-tier borrowers to maintain interest margins [6][4]. Market Dynamics - Despite the challenges, the used auto market remains healthy, supported by strong gross profit margins for scaled retailers [9][10]. - CarMax has sustained robust sourcing methods and integrated credit capabilities, which have helped maintain performance amid macroeconomic uncertainties [10].