购房需求疲弱叠加利率调整 美国楼市步入夏季淡季

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that U.S. mortgage rates have slightly decreased, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate falling to 6.81%, the lowest level since mid-May, amidst expectations of a quiet summer trading season [1] - Economists believe that there will not be a significant drop in rates in the short term, but both buyers and sellers are hoping for more noticeable declines [1] - The Mortgage Bankers Association reported a 3% decrease in mortgage applications for home purchases, indicating that high mortgage rates continue to suppress demand for buying and refinancing [1] Group 2 - In the new housing market, builders are offering more incentives, with 37% of builders reducing prices and 62% providing sales incentives as of June 2025, particularly in the South and West regions [2] - The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported a decline in builder confidence index to 32 in June, the third lowest level since 2012, reflecting the impact of high mortgage rates on builder sentiment [2] - Investor sentiment regarding prepayment risk is increasing, which may reduce interest in mortgage-backed securities (MBS), adding uncertainty to future mortgage rate trends [2] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%, while signaling the possibility of two rate cuts later in the year [3] - The market needs to adapt to a new reality where mortgage rates will not return to the 3% or 4% levels seen before the pandemic, requiring both buyers and sellers to adjust their expectations [3]