美联储在风险权衡下采取“拖延战术” 9月会议或成政策转向分水岭

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a change, reflecting a cautious approach amid economic uncertainties [1][2]. Economic Outlook - The Fed's economic projections indicate a slowdown in growth, with GDP growth forecasted to be 1.4% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026, while the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.5% in both years [1][6]. - Core PCE inflation is projected to be 3.1% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026, highlighting persistent inflationary pressures despite a cooling labor market [1][6]. Policy Adjustments - The Fed has removed previous language indicating rising risks of unemployment and inflation, suggesting a more stable outlook but still high uncertainty [2][5]. - The dot plot indicates that 8 out of 19 committee members support two rate cuts this year, while 7 favor maintaining the current rate, reflecting internal debates on the necessity of rate cuts [5][8]. Market Reactions - Despite the Fed's hawkish signals, market expectations for a rate cut in September are high, with a 66% probability, driven by recent weak economic data [8][9]. - The Fed's decision to keep rates unchanged is viewed as a prudent choice given the complex economic landscape, with potential policy shifts expected by late summer or early fall [8][9].