高通胀与经济放缓夹击下 英国央行今夜料按兵不动

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.25% amid high inflation, rising oil prices, and economic slowdown, with a consensus among economists indicating no rate cut in the immediate future [1][4]. Monetary Policy - The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) had a divided vote last month, with some members advocating for a 50 basis point cut while others supported maintaining the current rate [4]. - The MPC has lowered rates four times since August of the previous year, but the current economic data does not warrant drastic policy changes [5][12]. Economic Performance - Recent data shows the UK economy experienced its largest contraction in 18 months in April, with significant declines in exports to the US and record layoffs in May [10]. - Despite a strong growth of 0.7% in Q1, the MPC may revise its outlook on economic growth and inflation based on the latest data [12]. Geopolitical Risks - The escalation of tensions in the Middle East has replaced trade war concerns, with oil prices rising approximately 9% following recent conflicts, which could further impact UK inflation [13][16]. - Estimates suggest that a rise in Brent crude oil prices could increase UK inflation by 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points, potentially pushing inflation peaks higher [13].