国债期货：资金面平稳 债市情绪偏强

Market Performance - The performance of government bond futures showed divergence, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.09% to 120.900 yuan, while the 10-year and 5-year main contracts fell by 0.01% to 109.140 yuan and 106.280 yuan respectively. The 2-year main contract increased by 0.01% to 102.544 yuan [1] - The yields of major interbank bonds slightly rebounded, with the 30-year government bond yield rising by 0.35 basis points to 1.8460%, and the 10-year government bond yield increasing by 0.40 basis points to 1.6375% [1] Funding Conditions - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 156.3 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 7.7 billion yuan for the day [2] - The overnight pledged repo rate slightly decreased to around 1.37%, while the 7-day pledged repo rate saw a minor increase [2] - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit from major banks remained stable at approximately 1.65% [2] Policy Announcements - PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng announced eight financial policies at the 2025 Lujiazui Forum, including the establishment of a trading report database for interbank markets and the promotion of digital RMB internationalization [3] - Other policies include the establishment of a personal credit agency, offshore trade financial service reforms in Shanghai, and the development of free trade offshore [3] - The policies also focus on structural monetary policy innovations and enhancing foreign exchange market products to better manage exchange rate risks [3] Operational Suggestions - The market sentiment remains relatively strong despite the lack of emphasis on monetary policy at the Lujiazui Forum, with potential for bond market strength if the central bank resumes bond purchases [4] - It is suggested to consider adjusting long positions during market corrections and to pay attention to the TS2509 contract for potential strategies [4] - The current flat yield curve indicates greater potential for steepening in the medium term, although short-term interest rates have not yet begun to decline [4]