中加基金权益周报︱中美谈判利空落地，债市震荡走强

Market Overview and Analysis - The primary market saw the issuance of government bonds, local government bonds, and policy financial bonds amounting to 657.8 billion, 107.8 billion, and 175.5 billion respectively, with net financing of 262.1 billion, -43.0 billion, and 73.6 billion [1] - Financial bonds (excluding policy financial bonds) totaled an issuance of 236.8 billion with a net financing of 166.7 billion, while non-financial credit bonds had an issuance of 307.6 billion and net financing of 106.8 billion [1] - Three new convertible bonds were issued, with an expected financing scale of 2.1 billion [1] Secondary Market Review - The bond market experienced slight strengthening amidst fluctuations, influenced by factors such as liquidity, central bank reverse repo announcements, US-China negotiations, and geopolitical conflicts [2] Liquidity Tracking - The central bank conducted net liquidity absorption, with a tightening of funds as the tax period approached, leading to an increase in R001 and R007 rates by 1.4 basis points and 3 basis points respectively compared to the previous week [3] Policy and Fundamentals - Economic indicators show that domestic demand needs improvement, with a temporary decline in export data. Production remains stable, but domestic demand is weak, and prices for residents are trending downward, while geopolitical conflicts are pushing up prices for oil and other commodities [4] Overseas Market - US CPI and PPI data fell short of expectations, indicating that the impact of tariffs on inflation has not fully materialized, leading to increased market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut. The 10-year US Treasury yield closed at 4.41%, down 10 basis points from the previous week [5] Equity Market - The A-share market saw most broad-based indices decline slightly, with the Wind All A index down 0.27%, the Wind Micro-cap index down 0.07%, the CSI 300 down 0.25%, and the Sci-Tech 50 down 1.89%. Average daily trading volume increased to 1.37 trillion, with a weekly average increase of 162.8 billion [6] Bond Market Strategy Outlook - The current 10-year government bond yield has returned to the 1.65% level mentioned by the central bank governor in May, with bond fund durations at historical highs. Concerns remain about the central bank's ability to maintain liquidity support, and the bond market may be sensitive to potential negative factors in the short term. However, the ongoing US-China negotiations suggest that high tariffs may persist, and the central bank is expected to maintain a supportive stance, with a potential new round of interest rate declines anticipated after June [7]