机构看金市：6月19日

Core Viewpoints - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance is expected to pressure precious metals in the short term, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions providing some structural support for gold prices [1][2] - The long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact, supported by factors such as ongoing trade frictions, rising expectations for Fed rate cuts, and a contraction in dollar credit [2] - The recent geopolitical conflicts have led to a temporary spike in gold prices, but the sustainability of this increase is questioned due to the lack of significant physical demand [3] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in June and signaled a hawkish outlook, with the dot plot indicating two potential rate cuts this year, although seven officials support no cuts [1] - Inflation data continues to fall below expectations, paving the way for potential rate cuts, with the probability of a September rate cut increasing according to the CME FedWatch tool [2] - The dollar index has risen significantly, impacting the valuation of precious metals and creating a counterbalance to the geopolitical risks [2] Group 2: Geopolitical Tensions and Market Reactions - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is at a critical stage, with negotiations between European nations and Iran facing uncertainty, which may influence gold prices [1] - Analysts from Julius Baer Research note that the market's reaction to the Israel-Iran conflict has been muted, attributing initial price increases to speculative trading rather than genuine safe-haven demand [3] - The Gold Forecast highlights that while geopolitical risks can drive short-term price spikes, true safe-haven demand may quickly give way to profit-taking and technical selling [3] Group 3: Long-term Outlook for Precious Metals - Despite short-term pressures, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to structural factors such as ongoing geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases as countries seek to reduce reliance on the dollar [2][3] - The interplay between geopolitical risks, Federal Reserve policy changes, and evolving trade policies will shape the broader economic landscape and influence precious metal prices [3]