维持利率不变，美联储下调增长上调通胀预期

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50% for the fourth consecutive time since November of the previous year, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [1] - The Fed's statement highlights that economic activity is expanding steadily, with low unemployment and a strong labor market, although inflation remains slightly above the 2% target [1] - The Fed is committed to achieving maximum employment and the 2% inflation target, while closely monitoring data and economic outlook for future policy adjustments [1] Group 2 - The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) shows a significant downward adjustment in GDP growth expectations for the next three years, with median growth rates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 revised to 1.4%, 1.6%, and 1.8%, respectively, down from 1.7%, 1.8%, and 1.8% [3] - Unemployment rate expectations have been raised, with median rates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 now at 4.5%, 4.5%, and 4.4%, compared to previous expectations of 4.4%, 4.3%, and 4.3% [3] - Inflation expectations have also been increased, with median PCE and core PCE inflation rates for 2025 set at 3.0% and 3.1%, and for 2026 and 2027 at 2.4% and 2.1%, respectively, all above the Fed's 2% inflation target [3] Group 3 - The dot plot indicates that the median rate expectation for the end of 2024 is between 3.75% and 4.00%, suggesting a potential cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points from the current level, consistent with the March meeting results [3] - For the end of 2026, the median rate expectation is between 3.50% and 3.75%, which is higher than the previous range of 3.25% to 3.50%, indicating a narrowing of the expected rate cut from 50 basis points to 25 basis points [3]