鲍威尔“观望主义”难平市场分歧 华尔街激辩“降息2次还是零次”

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, indicating potential rate cuts later this year, but concerns over tariffs may slow the pace of these cuts due to expected inflation increases [1][2]. Economic Forecast - The Fed projects a moderate stagflation scenario with economic growth slowing to 1.4% this year and unemployment rising to 4.5% by year-end [1]. - Inflation is expected to settle at 3% by 2025, significantly above current levels [1]. Interest Rate Projections - The Fed anticipates a total of 50 basis points in rate cuts this year, consistent with previous forecasts, but has slightly slowed the pace of future cuts, projecting 25 basis points in 2026 and 2027 [1]. - Analysts express mixed views on the Fed's projections, with some noting a shift towards a more hawkish stance among Fed officials regarding future rate cuts [2][4]. Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, the S&P 500 index initially rose but ended up only 0.03% higher, while U.S. Treasury yields saw slight declines [1]. - The dollar index experienced fluctuations, ultimately rising by 0.21% [1]. Analyst Insights - Analysts highlight that the Fed's decision aligns with previous signals, emphasizing the uncertainty surrounding tariffs and their impact on inflation [2][3]. - Some analysts believe that the Fed's outlook on growth and inflation suggests that the anticipated economic impacts may not be as severe as previously feared [2][4]. - There is a consensus that the Fed's cautious approach reflects ongoing uncertainties in the labor market and inflation dynamics [5].