外国投资者真的在“抛售”美债吗？

Core Viewpoint - The TIC report from the U.S. Treasury reveals that foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury securities reached $9.0134 trillion as of April, showing a year-over-year increase but a month-over-month decrease, with Japan, the UK, and China being the top holders [1][3]. Group 1: Foreign Holdings of U.S. Debt - As of April, foreign holdings of U.S. debt totaled $9.0134 trillion, an increase of $977.2 billion year-over-year but a decrease of $36.1 billion month-over-month [1]. - The top three holders of U.S. debt are Japan ($1.13 trillion), the UK ($807.7 billion), and China ($757.2 billion), with Japan and the UK increasing their holdings while China decreased its [1][3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Trends - Since April, there has been significant market volatility attributed to a sentiment of "selling America," raising questions about whether this is a temporary shift or a long-term reallocation of global capital [5][7]. - The report indicates that 12 of the top 20 foreign holders reduced their U.S. debt holdings by a total of $125.2 billion, while 8 increased their holdings by $66.9 billion, suggesting mixed trends among foreign investors [3]. Group 3: Economic Implications - Concerns over U.S. fiscal issues have led to an increase in term premiums, as investors demand additional compensation for taking on term risk, which has affected the correlation between stocks and bonds [5][12]. - The long-term attractiveness of U.S. Treasuries may be challenged if fiscal imbalances are not addressed, potentially leading to higher yields on long-term bonds [12]. Group 4: Strategic Considerations - Japan's substantial holdings of U.S. debt are seen as a strategic asset for trade negotiations, although officials have stated they do not intend to use these holdings as leverage [10]. - The ongoing discussions about U.S. fiscal sustainability and its impact on Treasury yields highlight the delicate balance between maintaining investor confidence and addressing budget deficits [12].