国外1. 高盛：地缘风险将推升油价，布油或面临10美元/桶风险溢价。2. 惠誉：美国的财政前景仍然充满挑战。3. 三菱日联：若美国宣布介入伊以冲突，美元可能下跌。国内1. 中金：美联储不会在通胀面前轻举妄动。2. 中信证券：预计美联储年内降息次数小于或等于2次。3. 中信证券：预计L3将成为2025年四季度到2026年智驾主要升级方向。4. 招商宏观：美联储对滞胀风险的前瞻判断是迟迟不肯降息的原因。5. 华西证券：市场再度回归震荡格局，向上有一定兑现压力。6. 民生宏观：预计下半年美国硬数据补跌，“滞”将成

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs indicates that geopolitical risks will drive up oil prices, with Brent crude potentially facing a risk premium of $10 per barrel [2] - Fitch Ratings highlights that the fiscal outlook for the United States remains challenging [2] - Mitsubishi UFJ warns that if the U.S. intervenes in the Israel-Palestine conflict, the dollar may decline [2] Group 2 - CICC believes that the Federal Reserve will not act hastily in the face of inflation [2] - CITIC Securities expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates no more than twice this year [2] - CITIC Securities anticipates that L3 will become the main upgrade direction for autonomous driving from Q4 2025 to 2026 [2] - China Merchants Macro notes that the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on stagflation risks is delaying rate cuts [2] - Huaxi Securities observes that the market is returning to a volatile pattern, with upward pressure on profit-taking [2] - Minsheng Macro predicts that hard data in the U.S. will decline in the second half of the year, with "stag" becoming a trigger for a shift in the Federal Reserve's policy [2]