国际观察丨美关税政策拉低全球经济预期

Core Viewpoint - The global economic growth forecast has been downgraded by several international institutions, primarily due to the uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policies, which are seen as a significant risk to global economic stability [1][2][4]. Group 1: Economic Forecasts - The World Bank has reduced its 2025 global economic growth forecast from 2.7% to 2.3%, affecting nearly 70% of economies [1][2]. - Developed economies are expected to grow by 1.2% this year, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points, with the U.S. growth forecast cut from 2.3% to 1.4% [2]. - Emerging markets and developing economies are projected to grow by 3.8%, down 0.3 percentage points from previous estimates [2][3]. Group 2: Impact of U.S. Trade Policies - The uncertainty from U.S. trade policies is identified as a major factor contributing to the global economic slowdown, with trade barriers and an unstable policy environment causing significant disruptions [4][5]. - The actual tariff rates imposed by the U.S. on imports have reached their highest levels since 1938, exacerbating economic headwinds [4]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) describes the U.S. tariff measures as a "major negative shock" to the global economy [5]. Group 3: Recommendations and Responses - The OECD suggests that countries should work together to mitigate uncertainty, emphasizing the need to avoid further trade fragmentation and barriers [6]. - The EU Commission indicates that easing trade tensions with the U.S. could support economic growth, alongside reforms to enhance competitiveness [6]. - Increased dialogue in trade could help alleviate uncertainties, with signs of adaptation in global supply chains [6].