智通财经网·2025-06-19 08:37Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has rated New China Life Insurance (NCI) H/A shares as "Sell," with a 12-month target price of HKD 20.5 and CNY 28.5, implying a FY26E P/B of 0.6x and 1.0x respectively [1] Recent Sales Momentum and New Business Value (NBV) Outlook - The sales of participating products have rebounded since April, shifting focus from traditional products, with participating products accounting for over 50% of new premiums in the agent channel during April and May [2] - The company aims for a 30% share of participating products in its portfolio by FY25, expecting the transition to continue over the next 2-3 years [2] - Participating products have lower profit margins compared to traditional products, but the company has narrowed this gap through specific product designs [2] Investment Allocation - The company invests approximately CNY 200-300 billion annually, with new fixed income investments yielding 2-3% [3] - The asset allocation strategy consists of 70-80% in fixed income and 20% in equities, with a stable stock investment of about 16% as of FY24 [3] - The company plans to increase high-dividend investments in 2025 while maintaining a conservative approach to equity allocation due to current levels exceeding its strategic range of 12-15% [3] Liability Cost and Business Performance - The current liability cost for the company's existing business exceeds 3%, close to the industry average, but is expected to decline as new policies in 2024 and 2025 have guaranteed liability costs below 2.5% [4] - By the end of FY24, variable products are projected to contribute 48% to the business, benefiting from high-yield assets from early investments [4] - Potential upside risks include a rebound in the A-share market, improved cost discipline, and aggressive dividend policies [4]