摩根大通预警：铜价下半年或现“宿醉” Q3恐跌至9100美元！

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that copper prices are expected to decline to around $9,100 per ton in the third quarter of 2025 due to the reversal of tight supply conditions caused by preemptive imports in the U.S. and slowing demand from China [1][2] - In the first half of 2025, the copper market was significantly tightened due to two main factors: pre-imports in the U.S. before potential tariffs and the early release of demand in China [2] - The report anticipates that the U.S. will import approximately 430,000 tons of excess refined copper in the first half of 2025, which is equivalent to about six months of normal import demand [2] Group 2 - The report suggests that as the certainty of copper tariffs approaches, the situation of preemptive imports will reverse, leading to a potential de-inventory period in the U.S. where refined copper imports may drop to very low levels [2] - China's copper demand growth rate is projected to be around 7% year-on-year, but this growth momentum has shown signs of slowing since April 2025 [2][3] - Despite strong demand from the power grid, the report predicts that demand for air conditioning and white goods will face headwinds, leading to a potential stagnation or slight contraction in overall copper demand in China in the second half of 2025 [3] Group 3 - The overall copper supply growth remains challenged, but prices are expected to find basic support around $9,000 per ton or slightly above this level, as price corrections may attract buying interest from investors, companies, and stockpilers [3] - The ongoing conflicts in the Middle East pose a downside risk to basic metal demand, although they may have a more significant positive impact on aluminum supply [3]