6月以来涨幅超28%！地缘因素支撑原油走强

Core Viewpoint - The recent escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has led to a significant increase in international oil prices, reaching their highest levels of the year, driven by concerns over potential disruptions in oil supply and transportation through the Strait of Hormuz [1][3]. Oil Price Movements - As of June 19, Brent crude oil futures rose by 1% to $77.492 per barrel, marking a 20% increase from the year's low [1]. - Domestic crude oil futures in China hit a nearly four-month high, with the main contract closing at 570.9 yuan per barrel, a daily increase of 4.73% and a 28.38% rise for June [1]. Geopolitical Impact - Analysts suggest that the ongoing conflict may lead to a short-term decline in Iranian oil supply and potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, coinciding with the upcoming peak oil consumption season in the Northern Hemisphere [3]. - Concerns over the safety of oil transportation have intensified, with fears that further escalation could impact oil and gas infrastructure in Iran [4][5]. Market Volatility - The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Oil ETF Volatility Index (OVX) surged by 26% to 71.56, the highest level in nearly three years, indicating heightened market expectations for oil price volatility [4]. - The shipping costs for supertankers have dramatically increased, with daily rental rates for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) rising from $19,998 to $47,609, a 138% increase within a week [6]. Supply Tightening - The risk of oil supply disruptions is expected to increase, with the potential for accelerated inventory depletion and higher oil prices if the situation escalates [7]. - Recent data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicated a significant drop in U.S. crude oil inventories, decreasing by 11.473 million barrels to 421 million barrels, the largest decline in a year [7]. Future Outlook - Short-term oil price movements may continue to rise due to lower-than-expected actual production increases from OPEC+ and the onset of the travel season in Europe and the U.S., compounded by escalating geopolitical tensions [8]. - Historical trends suggest that geopolitical factors may have a transient impact on oil prices, with long-term price movements being more influenced by economic outlook and supply-demand dynamics [8].