铂金逆袭黄金，成上半年大宗商品之王

Core Viewpoint - Platinum prices have surged significantly, outperforming gold, with a year-to-date increase of over 47%, driven by supply constraints and rising demand [1][3]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global platinum supply is expected to decline, with a 10% year-on-year decrease in Q1 2025 to 45.3 tons, and an annual forecast of 218 tons, down 4% from 2024 [3]. - South Africa, the largest platinum producer, is facing challenges such as power shortages and rising extraction costs, leading to a 4% decline in production in Q1 2025, with a projected 15% decrease over the next five years [3]. - Global platinum demand is anticipated to grow by 10% year-on-year in Q1 2025 to 70.7 tons, with an annual forecast of 247.7 tons, resulting in a supply-demand gap of 30 tons [3]. Group 2: Investment Trends - Investment demand for platinum has increased significantly, with a 28% quarter-on-quarter rise globally, and a 140% year-on-year surge in China, making it the largest retail investment market for platinum [3][4]. - Platinum ETF holdings have increased by 3% year-on-year, with the PPLT fund in the U.S. growing from $1 billion to $1.4 billion within two months [3]. Group 3: Jewelry and Industrial Demand - In Q1 2025, platinum jewelry demand in China rose by 26% year-on-year, while India also saw significant growth due to export needs [4]. - Despite a slight decline in overall industrial demand, platinum remains strong in sectors like automotive catalysts, hydrogen technology, and chemicals, with a 12% year-on-year increase in automotive catalyst demand [4]. Group 4: Price Outlook and Speculation - Goldman Sachs suggests that the rapid rise in platinum prices is primarily driven by speculative investments and increased ETF holdings rather than fundamental improvements, indicating potential price correction risks [4]. - Deutsche Bank forecasts that platinum prices could reach $1,400 per ounce by the end of next year [4].