智通财经网·2025-06-19 10:01Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs remains optimistic about the beverage sector, viewing it as a preferred sub-sector within essential consumer goods, with long-term sales growth expected to support profit growth prospects for 2025 [1] Group 1: Profit Forecasts and Target Price Adjustments - The firm has raised net profit forecasts for food and beverage companies by up to 9% and adjusted target prices by 7% to +25%, reflecting cost efficiencies, product cycles, and an extension of valuations to mid-2026 [1] - Year-to-date, the stock prices of covered Chinese beverage companies have increased by 19%, outperforming the MSCI China Consumer Staples Index's 8% gain [1] Group 2: Competition and Market Dynamics - Increased competition from takeout subsidies has led to greater pricing discounts for ready-to-drink beverages, potentially impacting market share in the short term [2] - The firm notes that while ready-to-drink beverage outlets number over 600,000, the impact of ready-to-drink beverages on the overall beverage industry remains limited [2] Group 3: Sales Impact Analysis - Scenario analysis indicates that ready-to-drink and freshly made beverage consumption may have a mutual cannibalization effect of about 50%, with seasonal subsidies boosting sales by 25% to 45% during peak periods [3] - The overall impact on ready-to-drink beverage sales is projected to be in the low to mid-single-digit percentage range [3] Group 4: Product Cycle and Consumer Trends - The product cycle remains a key driver, with no-sugar beverages, new flavors, and sports/energy drinks experiencing growth, contributing over 20% to beverage sales by 2025 [4] - Notable products include Dongpeng Beverage's "Brewed Water" and "Fruit Tea," as well as Nongfu Spring's "Oriental Tree Leaf," which are expected to see significant sales growth [4] Group 5: Profit Margin Resilience - Despite concerns over promotional risks affecting product prices, the firm believes that cost efficiencies will keep reinvestment levels manageable [5] - The forecast for unit cost reductions has been revised to 2.3% to 6.3%, with expectations that this will offset a decline in product prices of 1.0% to 3.2% [5] - The analysis suggests that overall costs could decrease by 1.2% to 5.3% if spot prices are utilized, theoretically countering the impact of price declines [5]