【财经分析】民航暑运或现“量价齐升” 航空公司盈利拐点来了？

Core Insights - The summer travel season in 2025 is expected to see a significant increase in air travel demand, with an estimated 150 million passengers, representing a 5.4% year-on-year growth [1] - The average ticket price for economy class (excluding tax) is projected to reach 946 yuan, higher than the levels in 2019 and 2024, indicating a potential recovery in airline profitability [2][6] - The recovery of international routes is crucial for the aviation market, with a notable increase in flight operations and passenger demand, particularly in East Asia [3][6] Group 1: Summer Travel Trends - The number of scheduled passenger flights during the summer travel period is expected to reach 1.061 million, with a daily average of 17,000 flights, marking a 3.9% increase year-on-year [1] - Domestic flights are projected to account for 914,000 of these flights, a 2.7% increase, while international flights are expected to rise by 14.1% to 123,000 flights [1] - Popular routes are experiencing price increases, particularly flights from major cities to destinations like Urumqi and Lhasa, reflecting a broader trend of rising ticket prices [2] Group 2: International Route Recovery - International flight operations have seen a 21.1% increase in the first five months of the year, with inbound tourism orders surging by 141% during the May Day holiday [3] - The international aviation market is expected to recover to about 90% of the levels seen in 2019 during the summer travel period, with significant growth in East Asia and other regions [3] - Despite slower recovery in China-North America routes, there are positive signs, such as Delta Airlines resuming direct flights from Shanghai to Los Angeles [3] Group 3: Airline Profitability Outlook - The aviation industry is facing challenges with high competition and pressure from high-speed rail, leading to a continued "high passenger volume but low profitability" situation [6] - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) forecasts a rise in net profits for Asia-Pacific airlines from $4 billion in the previous year to $4.9 billion in 2025, driven by increased passenger demand [6] - Airlines are encouraged to leverage tourism resources and develop new products that integrate travel and tourism, capitalizing on favorable visa policies and the recovery of international travel [6][7]