今年迄今涨超49%！供需失衡与避险情绪刺激铂金飙升

Core Viewpoint - Platinum prices have surged, reaching a nearly 10-year high, driven by geopolitical instability and supply shortages, leading to a reevaluation of its investment value [1][2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global platinum market is expected to face a structural shortage of 966,000 ounces by Q1 2025, with supply shrinking by 10% year-on-year in Q1 2023 due to flooding in South Africa and aging mines [1]. - Platinum demand increased by 10% in Q1 2023, with jewelry demand rising by 9% and investment demand surging by 28% to 14 tons, particularly driven by a 140% increase in Chinese retail investment [1][2]. Market Sentiment and Investment Trends - The sentiment in the platinum market is improving, as indicated by the increase in futures positions and net long holdings, with total open interest rising from 70,592 contracts on May 22 to 77,787 contracts by May 30 [2]. - The COMEX platinum inventory has seen a net outflow, dropping to 12.46 million ounces, exacerbating supply-demand tensions [2]. Price Influences - The high gold prices are suppressing gold demand while boosting platinum jewelry market growth, suggesting that sustained high gold prices will continue to drive platinum demand recovery [2]. - Speculative funds and increased ETF holdings have contributed to the rapid rise in platinum prices since May 20, although there are concerns about long-term sustainability due to potential oversupply in industrial and consumer demand [3]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict a global platinum supply shortage of 30 tons for the year, alongside increasing demand from the hydrogen energy sector, where platinum is essential for fuel cells [2]. - However, some analysts caution that the market may face oversupply in the coming years, with projections indicating a surplus of 26,000 ounces in 2024 and 32,900 ounces in 2025 if investment demand is excluded [3].