避险天堂动荡：瑞士央行降息，瑞郎套利交易或激增

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has lowered the policy interest rate to 0%, triggering discussions about the potential reintroduction of negative interest rates and restructuring monetary policy transmission mechanisms [1][2]. Monetary Policy Changes - The SNB's decision to lower the policy rate aligns with an 81% market expectation and introduces a dual mechanism of "0% policy rate + excess negative interest rate" for deposits exceeding 10 million Swiss francs [1][3]. - The new tiered interest rate system aims to manage the impact of the Swiss franc's strength on inflation, as the country faces deflationary pressures with a 0.1% year-on-year decline in CPI [2][3]. Banking Sector Implications - Approximately 12% of the Swiss banking sector's 350 billion Swiss francs in current deposits will be subject to negative interest rates, leading to increased costs for banks [4]. - For instance, UBS could see an annual increase of about 80 million Swiss francs in interest expenses due to negative rates on excess deposits [4]. Cross-Border Capital Flows - The negative interest rate environment is expected to enhance the attractiveness of the Swiss franc as a funding currency, potentially increasing arbitrage trading volumes significantly [5]. - Assets such as gold and cryptocurrencies may see price adjustments, with gold prices projected to rise by 12% in Swiss franc terms [5]. Retail Behavior and Wealth Management - Although deposits below 10 million Swiss francs are exempt from negative rates, banks may impose hidden fees, leading to a shift in retail investor behavior towards insurance products and tangible assets [5]. - Historical data indicates that during previous negative interest rate periods, Swiss households reduced cash holdings by 15% in favor of higher-yielding assets [5]. Risks and Challenges - The current policy framework faces potential risks, including the possibility of exceeding the 10 million Swiss franc threshold for corporate deposits, which could lead to a rapid adjustment of negative interest rates [6][7]. - There is also a risk of banks hoarding cash if negative rates exceed -0.75%, which could tighten market liquidity [8]. - Political pressures may arise, as initiatives to protect depositors' interests could challenge the legitimacy of the SNB's negative interest rate policy [8].