科技创新能力领先 机构判断核心城市新房开发仍具较大潜力

Group 1 - The 2025 China Urban Development Investment Attractiveness Ranking shows that Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou remain the top four cities for real estate investment attractiveness, while Hangzhou, Chengdu, Suzhou, Nanjing, Wuhan, and Xi'an rank 5th to 10th [1] - The first-tier cities maintain strong attractiveness due to their large economic scale, well-developed infrastructure, and abundant resources and talent reserves. Notably, Shenzhen and Guangzhou continue to see population growth, with increases of approximately 200,000 and 151,000 respectively, while Beijing and Shanghai experience population declines of 26,000 and 72,000 [1] - The ranking highlights the rapid development of artificial intelligence in Hangzhou, the booming high-tech industries in Chengdu, and the strong manufacturing base in Suzhou, with the new generation information technology industry expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan in output value by 2025 [1] Group 2 - The quality of industrial development is identified as a core factor influencing urban population attractiveness and residents' purchasing power. High-quality population inflow can drive both incremental housing demand and the release of local improvement housing demand [2] - Core first- and second-tier cities are expected to attract high-quality talent through their competitive industrial advantages and strong purchasing power, indicating significant potential for new housing development under the trend of improving housing markets [2] - The Yangtze River Delta cities, led by Shanghai, perform particularly well in the ranking, with cities like Hangzhou, Suzhou, and Nanjing making it to the top ten. In the Pearl River Delta, all nine cities are experiencing net population inflows, with Shenzhen and Guangzhou leading in population growth [2] Group 3 - Recent years have seen leading real estate companies converge in their investment strategies, focusing on core cities, prime locations, and plots with high absorption certainty, reflecting a consensus on urban opportunities [3] - In Shenzhen, a residential land auction resulted in a winning bid of 1.212 billion yuan, translating to a floor price of approximately 44,559 yuan per square meter, with a premium rate of 46.6%. Similarly, in Shanghai, a land parcel was sold for about 3.5 billion yuan, with a floor price of 95,529 yuan per square meter and a premium rate of 30.79% [3] - The share of land sale revenue from the top 10 cities in China rose to 54% in the first five months of 2025, up from 34% in 2024, indicating intensified competition in land auctions in core cities [3]