整理：英国央行6月利率决议重点一览——投票分歧意外增大，8月降息概率上升？

Group 1 - The Bank of England maintained the policy interest rate at 4.25%, aligning with market expectations [1] - The voting ratio was 6:3, with members including Dingra, Ramsden, and Taylor supporting a rate cut [1] - The outlook for interest rates suggests a gradual and cautious approach, with Governor Bailey indicating rates will "gradually decline" [1] Group 2 - The second quarter GDP is projected to grow approximately 0.25% quarter-on-quarter, an increase from the previous forecast of 0.1% [1] - The mid-term CPI path risks are seen as two-sided, with significant wage slowdown expected for the remainder of the year [1] - CPI is anticipated to peak at 3.7% in September, remaining below 3.5% for the rest of the year [1] Group 3 - Preliminary analysis indicates that the impact of tariffs on global GDP may be smaller than previously expected in May [1] - Recent global developments did not significantly influence the decision to maintain interest rates in June [1] Group 4 - The GBP/USD exchange rate experienced a short-term decline, with traders increasing bets on an 80% probability of a rate cut in August [1] - There are expectations for an additional 50 basis points cut by the central bank within the year [1]