英国央行按兵不动，市场押注八月降息

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%, reflecting a careful balance of economic data and risk factors, with market expectations aligning with this decision [1][2]. Economic Data - The UK inflation rate remains high, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a year-on-year increase of 3.4% in May, which is above the Bank's target of 2% [3]. - Despite a previous drop in inflation to 2.6% in March, the rate rebounded to 3.5% in April due to rising energy prices, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [3]. Monetary Policy Outlook - Market analysts expect the Bank of England to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points in the upcoming August meeting and again in the fourth quarter [4]. - The decision to hold rates steady was anticipated, but comments from the Bank's officials suggest a potential for further rate cuts within the year [4]. Geopolitical and Economic Risks - The ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are complicating the economic landscape, potentially affecting oil prices and thereby inflation [5]. - External risks such as global trade tensions and geopolitical shocks may limit the Bank's policy flexibility, necessitating a more aggressive response if economic conditions worsen [4][5].