Netflix vs. Amazon: Which Streaming Giant Has Better Upside Potential?

Core Insights - The article highlights the contrasting strategies of Netflix and Amazon in the competitive streaming landscape, with Netflix focusing on pure-play streaming while Amazon integrates its services within a broader ecosystem [1][2]. Netflix (NFLX) Overview - Netflix reported strong first-quarter 2025 results, significantly beating earnings expectations, driven by healthy subscriber growth and retention metrics [2][3]. - The advertising opportunity is identified as a key growth catalyst, with expectations to double advertising revenues in 2025 through the rollout of its proprietary ad tech platform [4][7]. - Netflix's content strategy includes major investments exceeding 1 billion euros in Spain through 2028 and partnerships like the TF1 Group distribution deal in France, enhancing its competitive position [5]. - The gaming initiative, while still in early stages, is seen as a growth vector with minimal risk of cannibalization, focusing on premium, ad-free experiences tied to popular IP [6]. - Management has set ambitious targets, including doubling revenues by 2030 and achieving $9 billion in annual advertising revenues by the same year [7]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings is $25.32 per share, indicating a year-over-year growth of 27.69% [8]. Amazon (AMZN) Overview - Amazon's investment case is based on its diversified business model, with AWS generating $29.3 billion in quarterly revenues and 17% growth [11]. - Prime Video benefits from integration within Amazon's ecosystem, allowing for aggressive content spending without immediate profitability pressure [12]. - The upcoming content pipeline for Prime Video includes diverse programming across multiple genres, appealing to a broad demographic [13]. - Amazon's advertising revenues reached $13.9 billion, growing 19% year over year, with premium targeting capabilities enhancing monetization potential [14]. - The company has a free cash flow of $25.9 billion, providing sustained investment capacity for content acquisition [15]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings is $6.17 per share, reflecting an 11.57% increase from the previous year [15]. Valuation and Performance Comparison - Both Netflix and Amazon trade at premium valuations, with Netflix at 44x forward earnings and Amazon at 32.09x [16]. - Netflix's focused business model offers greater transparency and predictability, potentially leading to multiple expansions as advertising initiatives gain traction [16]. - Year-to-date, Netflix shares have climbed 37.1%, outperforming Amazon, which has declined by 3.1% [10][19]. Conclusion - Netflix is positioned as the superior investment choice for those seeking upside potential, with its focused streaming strategy and innovative content approaches providing clearer paths to growth [22].