美联储今年第四次“按兵不动” 降息最早或在9月份

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting this year where rates have remained unchanged, aligning with market expectations [1][2]. Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve perceives that the U.S. economy continues to expand at a steady pace, with low unemployment and a stable labor market, although inflation remains slightly elevated [1]. - The Fed has removed previous language indicating rising risks of unemployment and inflation, instead highlighting that economic uncertainty has decreased but remains high [1][2]. - The Fed's economic growth forecast for the U.S. has been downgraded, with projected GDP growth rates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 now at 1.4%, 1.6%, and 1.8% respectively, down from earlier estimates of 1.7%, 1.8%, and 1.8% [2]. Interest Rate Projections - The Fed's dot plot indicates expectations for two rate cuts this year, consistent with previous forecasts, but the number of officials not anticipating rate cuts has increased [2]. - There is a growing internal division among Fed officials regarding the timing and necessity of rate cuts, with 8 officials supporting two cuts this year and 7 opposing [2]. Inflation and Employment - Inflationary pressures are expected to rise significantly in the coming months, influenced by U.S. tariff policies, which adds uncertainty to the Fed's ability to lower rates [3]. - The job market may experience a significant cooling after June, which could prompt the Fed to consider preemptive rate cuts, with the earliest potential cut anticipated in September [3]. Conclusion - The Fed's policy uncertainty is increasing, but a baseline prediction remains for two rate cuts totaling 50 basis points within the year, contingent on forthcoming economic data, particularly inflation metrics [3].