“关税战”拉锯、不确定性增强——钢市在三重迷雾中破局

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese steel market is currently facing three major uncertainties that are primarily pressuring steel prices [1] Group 1: Market Pressures - The first uncertainty is the trajectory of the US-China "tariff war," with US tariffs on Chinese steel and related products reaching unprecedented levels, including a recent increase to 50% on steel and aluminum imports [2] - The second uncertainty is the global economic growth outlook, which has been negatively impacted by US tariff policies, leading to a pessimistic view of both US and global economic growth [3] - The third uncertainty involves China's steel production release, where despite government policies to control production, there remains a strong incentive for companies to increase output when prices rise, leading to a persistent oversupply situation [4] Group 2: Demand Resilience - Despite the ongoing impact of the US-China "tariff war," recent negotiations suggest that the situation may be stabilizing, with positive effects from China's counter-cyclical policies, particularly in the real estate market [5] - Industrial value-added output in China grew by 6.4% year-on-year in the first four months of the year, with manufacturing output increasing by 6.9%, indicating resilience in steel consumption [6] - Fixed asset investment in China also showed a year-on-year growth of 4%, suggesting that steel consumption in this sector remains robust despite challenges in the real estate market [6]