又逢美股“三巫日”!6.5万亿美元期权到期或引剧烈波动

Core Viewpoint - Investors are preparing for the upcoming expiration of $6.5 trillion in nominal value U.S. options, which may lead to increased volatility in the stock market [1][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The phenomenon known as "triple witching" occurs when multiple categories of exchange-traded derivatives expire on the same day, which could lead to sudden market fluctuations after the expiration date [1]. - Since early May, the U.S. stock market has experienced relatively mild intraday volatility, partly due to a "pinning" effect from a large number of put options established earlier in the year [1]. - The S&P 500 index's potential to rebound to historical highs appears limited, as noted by Rocky Fishman from Asym 500 LLC, who attributes market stability to these options trades [1]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - In early April, many pessimistic investors purchased hedging tools against market declines and financed these protective positions by selling call options slightly above the current level of the S&P 500 index (5981 points) [2]. - Fishman highlighted that the upcoming expiration date is one of the largest in history, indicating significant market implications [2]. Group 3: Market Maker Impact - Market makers and brokers' hedging operations can significantly influence the stock market and feedback into the overall market dynamics [5]. - Fishman noted that the market has been in a "positive gamma" state since early May, where participants tend to sell on price increases and buy on declines, thus suppressing volatility [5]. - Matthew Thompson from Little Harbor Advisors emphasized the importance of monitoring events like "triple witching" to manage tactical positions in stock ETFs in response to volatility changes [5]. Group 4: Special Significance of Upcoming Expiration - Citigroup strategists Vishal Vivek and Stuart Kaiser indicated that the upcoming "triple witching" day has special significance, with an estimated $5.8 trillion in nominal equity options set to expire [6]. - This includes $4.2 trillion in index options, $708 billion in U.S. ETF options, and $819 billion in individual stock options, highlighting the scale of the upcoming expiration [6].