Group 1 - The Bank of England has decided to maintain the policy interest rate at 4.25%, aligning with market expectations despite inflation data showing a 3.4% increase in May, significantly above the 2% target [1][2] - There is a division within the Monetary Policy Committee regarding the economic outlook, with three members voting for a rate cut, indicating a conflict between prioritizing anti-inflation measures and growth preservation [1] - Analysts predict a potential rate cut of 50 basis points by the end of the year, with an 80% probability of a cut in August, as the labor market continues to loosen and wage growth is expected to slow significantly [1][2] Group 2 - The UK is facing dual challenges from geopolitical and external risks, particularly due to the Israel-Iran conflict, which has caused oil prices to surge by 8.5% in a week, impacting household energy bills and business costs [2] - The Bank of England remains cautious about inflation, particularly as service sector inflation and geopolitical risks contribute to uncertainty in inflation reduction, despite a belief that tariff shocks have a limited impact on global GDP [2] - The economic outlook shows increasing downward pressure, with a predicted GDP growth of only 0.25% for Q2, leading the Bank of England to adopt a "gradual and cautious" approach to interest rate adjustments [2]
通胀压力与经济增长乏力双重夹击下 英国央行或“渐进且谨慎”降息
Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-06-20 00:22