涂孟泽：玩转十年国债ETF之利率择时策略

Group 1 - The ten-year government bond has shown a long-term upward trend, with the ten-year bond ETF (511260) achieving positive returns annually since 2018 [1] - The bond bull market that has lasted for four years since 2021 has led many investors to adopt a bullish mindset, despite historical instances of significant pullbacks in 2017 and 2020 [1] - The current yield of the ten-year government bond has decreased from 3.3% at the onset of the pandemic to around 1.7%, supported by a weak recovery in the fundamentals and some degree of deflation [1] Group 2 - There are three main influencing factors for interest rate bonds: long-term fundamentals, medium-term policy, and short-term technical and trading aspects [2] - Technical indicators are essential for market judgment, with price trend indicators being the most significant and effective in confirming the trendiness of government bonds [2] - The current trend indicators have returned to a relatively neutral level, with the central bank maintaining a loose monetary environment, but further rate declines are limited [3] Group 3 - The overall outlook for the bond market remains positive, favoring long-duration products like the ten-year government bond ETF (511260), although the perspective is relatively neutral [3] - There is a suggestion that extending duration to pursue flexibility carries certain risks [3]