Group 1 - Citigroup analysts indicated that if the conflict between Iran and Israel escalates, leading to a daily reduction of 1.1 million barrels in Iranian oil exports, Brent crude prices could rise by 15%-20% from pre-conflict levels, corresponding to a price range of $75-$78 per barrel [1] - If Iranian oil exports are interrupted by 3 million barrels per day for several months, oil prices could reach $90 per barrel [1] - JPMorgan warned that if the conflict escalates to include the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices could soar to $120-$130 per barrel [1] Group 2 - Since 1979, there have been eight significant regime changes in oil-producing countries, with oil prices rising by an average of 30% and peaking at a 76% increase [2] - Barclays stated that if Iranian exports are halved, oil prices could rise to $85 per barrel, and in the worst-case scenario of a full-scale conflict, prices could exceed $100 per barrel [2] - Iran, as the third-largest oil producer in OPEC, currently has a daily crude oil production of approximately 3.3 million barrels [3]
花旗：若伊朗石油出口日减110万桶 布油或冲75-78美元
智通财经网·2025-06-20 01:34