Price Trends - As of June 19, the price of 304 cold-rolled stainless steel in Wuxi is 12,700 CNY/ton, and in Foshan, it is 12,800 CNY/ton, both remaining stable day-on-day [1] - The base price has decreased by 50 CNY/ton to 295 CNY/ton [1] Raw Material Insights - The weather impact in the Philippines has lessened, leading to improved shipping efficiency, with 1.3% nickel ore trading at FOB 36 and CIF 45 to Indonesia [1] - The domestic benchmark price for Indonesian nickel ore is expected to drop by 0.3-0.5 USD in June [1] - Nickel pig iron prices are declining, with a procurement price of 940 CNY/nickel (including tax) reported by a steel mill in South China [1] Supply and Production Data - In June, the estimated crude steel output from 43 domestic stainless steel mills is 3.3623 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.91% but a year-on-year increase of 2.24% [1] - The production of the 300 series is 1.7912 million tons, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.36% and a year-on-year increase of 8.35% [1] Inventory Levels - As of June 20, social inventory of the 300 series in Wuxi and Foshan is 534,200 tons, a week-on-week increase of 3,400 tons [2] - The stainless steel futures inventory is 114,869 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 4,116 tons [2] Market Dynamics - The stainless steel market has seen a slight increase in prices, but overall trading remains cautious with no significant improvement in transactions [3] - The macroeconomic environment is stable, with the Federal Reserve maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 4.25-4.5% [3] - The supply side remains high, with some steel mills expected to slightly increase 300 series production while reducing 400 series output [3] Demand and Seasonal Trends - Overall demand is weak, with manufacturing orders recovering slowly, leading to procurement primarily based on immediate needs [3] - The stainless steel market is entering a seasonal destocking phase, but the pace of inventory reduction has been slow this year [3] Short-term Outlook - The market is expected to experience weak fluctuations, with a reference range for the main contract set between 12,400 and 13,000 CNY [4]
不锈钢：低位区间盘面小幅上涨 基本面弱势未改
Jin Tou Wang·2025-06-20 02:05