全球央行深陷贸易与政治“迷雾”，降息前景扑朔迷离

Central Banks Overview - Global central banks are facing increased uncertainty regarding economic growth and inflation, complicating their decision-making processes, especially for those nearing the end of their rate-cutting cycles [1] - The Norwegian central bank unexpectedly announced a rate cut, marking its first reduction since 2020 [1] Switzerland - The Swiss National Bank lowered its benchmark interest rate to zero, citing declining inflation, appreciation of the Swiss franc, and economic instability due to uncertain U.S. trade policies [2] - There is speculation about whether the Swiss National Bank will move rates into negative territory, but further cuts are deemed more challenging now that rates are at zero [2] Canada - The Bank of Canada maintained its interest rate at 2.75%, indicating potential further cuts if economic downturns occur due to tariff impacts [5] - This marks the second consecutive pause in rate hikes after a significant reduction of 225 basis points over nine months [5] Sweden - The Swedish central bank reduced its benchmark rate from 2.25% to 2%, with indications of possible further easing by year-end due to low price pressures [8] - The bank has cut rates by a total of 200 basis points since May 2024 [8] New Zealand - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to keep rates unchanged on July 9, following a 25 basis point cut to 3.25% in May to protect the economy [12] - There is an expectation of another 25 basis point cut later this year, with a total of 225 basis points cut during the current cycle [12] Eurozone - The European Central Bank recently cut rates, marking its eighth reduction since mid-2024, while keeping all policy options open for the next meeting [15] - ECB President Lagarde stated that the 2% inflation target is achievable, but the key concern for investors is whether inflation will fall below this target, necessitating further easing [15] United States - The Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate, with potential declines expected by 2025, although Chairman Powell cautioned against over-reliance on this forecast [18] - Powell noted that if not for tariff issues, lower rates might have been considered due to recent low inflation data, with expectations of about two 25 basis point cuts by year-end [18] United Kingdom - The Bank of England unexpectedly kept rates at 4.25%, with market expectations for two more cuts by year-end [21] - Three out of nine rate setters voted for a cut, with speculation that weak labor data could accelerate the rate-cutting pace, although high inflation may hinder this [21] Australia - The Reserve Bank of Australia is preparing for rapid rate cuts due to weak economic growth and concerns over U.S.-China trade disputes affecting commodity producers [24] - In May, the RBA cut rates by 25 basis points to 3.85%, with expectations that borrowing costs could approach 3% by year-end [24] Norway - The Norwegian central bank cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%, marking its first cut since 2020, which surprised many analysts [27] - The central bank is known for its cautious approach to rate cuts, with expectations of one to two more cuts this year [27] Japan - The Bank of Japan maintained its interest rate, aligning with investor expectations, while facing challenges from escalating Middle East tensions and U.S. tariff policies [31] - The bank decided to slow the pace of balance sheet reduction next year, indicating a cautious approach to unwinding a decade of stimulus measures [31]