6月份LPR如期持稳 短期内政策加码预期降温

Group 1 - The June Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains stable at 3.0% for the 1-year term and 3.5% for the 5-year term, consistent with previous rates [1] - The stability of the LPR aligns with expectations, as the policy has entered an observation period following a 10 basis point decrease in May [1][3] - The LPR is influenced by the 7-day reverse repurchase rate, which has not changed in June, indicating that the pricing basis for LPR remains unchanged [3] Group 2 - Despite a decrease in funding rates, banks face structural pressure on the liability side, limiting their willingness to compress LPR further [3] - The net interest margin of commercial banks has compressed to a historical low of 1.43%, and is expected to narrow further following the May rate cut [3] - Analysts suggest that there may still be room for LPR to decline in the second half of the year due to external uncertainties and the need to stimulate domestic demand [4] Group 3 - The central bank may continue to lower interest rates in the second half of the year, which could lead to a more significant decrease in both terms of LPR [4] - This potential decrease in LPR is seen as a crucial measure to reduce financing costs for the real economy and stimulate internal financing demand [4] - There is a possibility of further regulatory measures to guide down the 5-year LPR, facilitating lower mortgage rates for residents [5]