正略管理咨询：能源行业“十五五”发展的四大趋势

Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" for energy is crucial for achieving carbon peak goals and accelerating the construction of a new energy system, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive approach to energy planning and development [1] Group 1: Trends in Energy Development - Trend 1: The transition to green and low-carbon energy is advancing, with clean energy taking a leading role. The investment in non-fossil energy during the "14th Five-Year Plan" accounted for one-third of global investments, and during the "15th Five-Year Plan," installed capacity for wind and solar energy is expected to exceed 1.2 billion kilowatts [2] - Trend 2: Hydrogen and energy storage are becoming critical supports. The development of green hydrogen production technology is progressing rapidly, and the cost of renewable energy electrolysis for hydrogen production is decreasing [3] - Trend 3: The construction of a new power system is essential to address the challenges of renewable energy consumption. The new power system will enhance the flexibility and stability of the energy supply, focusing on improving grid infrastructure and integrating various energy sources [4] - Trend 4: The energy internet is taking shape, with continuous improvements in digitalization and intelligence. The integration of advanced information and communication technologies with energy systems will optimize energy production, transmission, and consumption [5][6] Group 2: Energy Security and Global Competition - The "15th Five-Year Plan" will see a blend of energy security and global competition, with a focus on self-sufficiency and resilience in energy supply. Domestic shale gas production is expected to exceed 50 billion cubic meters, and strategic mineral reserves will be extended to a six-month guarantee period [7] - Internationally, the shift towards carbon neutrality is reshaping global energy rules, moving from project-based cooperation to competition across the entire industry chain. This includes leading the establishment of international standards for green hydrogen and energy storage [7]