债市日报：6月20日

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is showing a strong consolidation trend, with expectations of continued loose monetary policy from the central bank to counter potential external demand pressures [1][7]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed higher across the board, with the 30-year main contract up by 0.21%, and the 10-year main contract up by 0.02% [2]. - The yields on major interbank bonds mostly declined, with the 10-year government bond yield down by 0.15 basis points to 1.639% [2]. - The China Securities convertible bond index closed down by 0.01%, with a trading volume of 573.28 billion [2]. Overseas Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields rose collectively, with the 10-year yield increasing by 1.58 basis points to 4.393% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields mostly declined, with the 10-year yield down by 1.4 basis points to 1.399% [4]. - In the Eurozone, bond yields generally increased, with the 10-year UK bond yield rising by 3.6 basis points to 4.529% [4]. Primary Market - Shenzhen's local bonds saw high bidding multiples, with the 2-year bond "Shenzhen 2532" having a bid-to-cover ratio of 16.59 [5]. - The 15-year bond "Shenzhen 2533" had a bid-to-cover ratio of 15.27, indicating strong demand [5]. Liquidity and Interest Rates - The LPR remained stable, with the 1-year LPR at 3% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5% [6]. - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation with a total of 1612 billion, resulting in a net withdrawal of 413 billion for the day [6]. - Short-term Shibor rates mostly increased, with the overnight rate up by 0.1 basis points to 1.368% [6]. Investment Strategy Insights - The bond market is expected to challenge previous lows, with social financing growth projected to peak around 9.0% in July and August before gradually declining [8]. - The central bank's liquidity support has led to a stable funding environment, suggesting that long-term bond yields may have room to decline [8].