美元避险地位遭挑战 期权市场加速转向欧元

Core Viewpoint - The euro is increasingly being used as a safe-haven currency and is gaining traction in the global foreign exchange options market, as traders seek to avoid the unpredictable U.S. dollar amid trade war risks and economic uncertainties [1][5]. Group 1: Euro's Growing Role - Approximately 15% to 30% of contracts linked to the U.S. dollar against major currencies have shifted to the euro in the first five months of this year [1]. - The euro has appreciated by 11% against the U.S. dollar this year, reaching its highest level since 2021 at over 1.16 USD [5]. - The euro is being viewed as a key driver in a potentially more significant European capital flow environment, according to BNP Paribas options strategist Oliver Brennan [1]. Group 2: Dollar's Decline - The U.S. dollar has seen a decline of over 7% against a basket of major currencies, marking its lowest level since 2022 [5]. - Hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones predicts a further 10% decline in the dollar over the next year [5]. - The implied volatility of the euro against the yen has decreased relative to that of the dollar against the yen, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards the euro as a safer asset [5][9]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Strategy - Traders are increasingly favoring the euro over the dollar when hedging or betting on significant volatility in the yen, as evidenced by the widening spread in the "10-delta fly wing" options [9]. - The market is seeking cheaper ways to express bullish views on the euro, especially in light of the potential for better performance compared to the dollar [6]. - European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde has called for policymakers to seize the opportunity to enhance the euro's global standing [9].