What's Next For ArcelorMittal Stock After A 35% Rally?

Group 1 - ArcelorMittal has shown a significant recovery with Q1 2025 EBITDA of $1.58 billion, driven by increased iron ore production and stable steel shipments, leading to a 35% stock price increase year-to-date [2] - Global steel demand (excluding China) is expected to grow by 2.5–3.5% in 2025, positioning ArcelorMittal to benefit from expanding markets like India and infrastructure-heavy regions such as the U.S. [2] - The company is investing in capacity expansion, facility modernization, and increasing high-grade iron ore exports to enhance its competitive edge [2] Group 2 - Steel prices are cyclical, and rising global trade tensions, particularly between the U.S. and China, could impact market sentiment [3] - The transition to green steel in Europe will require significant investments, potentially putting pressure on margins in the short term [3] Group 3 - ArcelorMittal stock reflects much of the short-term optimism in its current price, with a forward P/S ratio of around 0.4x, indicating it may appear inexpensive [4] - Despite the current valuation, rising expectations and macroeconomic risks, including tariffs and steel price fluctuations, suggest that further upside may be gradual unless new growth catalysts emerge [4] - The company appears fairly valued at present, with gains already factored in unless supportive conditions improve [4]