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创新药经不起大起大落
Jing Ji Guan Cha Wang·2025-06-20 12:03

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese innovative drug sector has experienced significant volatility in a short period, raising questions about its future trajectory after a recent market correction [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - After a period of rapid stock price increases, both Hong Kong and A-share innovative drug sectors faced a correction in mid-June, leading investors to speculate on the sustainability of the current market trend [2]. - The innovative drug sector in China has only been active in the secondary market for about seven years, yet it has undergone fluctuations that typically take decades in other industries [2]. - The market saw explosive growth from 2020 to 2021, with many companies doubling their stock prices, but this was followed by a sharp decline, reaching historical lows by July 2024, with most companies trading below their initial offering prices [2]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Industry Response - The extreme volatility has negatively impacted investor confidence, prompting some companies to scale back their pipelines, lay off employees, and abandon long-term research projects [3]. - Following the downturn, the innovative drug market began to recover in early 2025, with significant business development transactions stimulating growth in A-shares, leading to renewed optimism about a potential "bull market" [3][4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The innovative drug industry is characterized by a long development timeline, typically requiring ten years and one billion dollars to bring a new drug to market, indicating that the sector is still in its growth phase [4]. - The next decade is crucial for the industry, as it seeks to achieve rational valuations and longer growth cycles, emphasizing the need for a "slow bull" market rather than extreme volatility [4]. - The industry must focus on enhancing original innovation capabilities while supporting more companies dedicated to groundbreaking research, despite the higher risks associated with original innovation compared to fast-follow strategies [4]. Group 4: Policy Environment - A stable policy environment is essential for fostering a "slow bull" market, with recent initiatives from the National Healthcare Security Administration exploring new payment models for innovative drugs [5]. - The reduction in clinical trial review times from 60 to 30 working days is expected to accelerate the market entry of innovative drugs, which could further enhance investor confidence [5]. - A collaborative approach among companies, investors, and regulators, grounded in long-term thinking, is necessary to develop more internationally competitive innovative drugs [5].