B vs. AEM: Which Gold Mining Stock Should You Bet on Now?

Core Viewpoint - Barrick Mining Corporation and Agnico Eagle Mines Limited are leading gold producers with diversified portfolios, positioned to benefit from favorable gold prices and geopolitical tensions, making them relevant for investors in the precious metals sector [1][25]. Gold Price Dynamics - Gold prices have increased approximately 29% this year, reaching a peak of $3,500 per ounce in April 2025, driven by aggressive trade policies and central bank accumulation of gold reserves [2]. Barrick Mining Corporation - Barrick is advancing key growth projects, including Goldrush and the Reko Diq project, which are expected to significantly enhance production [4][5]. - The Goldrush mine aims for 400,000 ounces of production annually by 2028, while the Reko Diq project is projected to produce 460,000 tons of copper and 520,000 ounces of gold annually [5]. - Barrick's Lumwana copper mine expansion is a $2 billion project expected to double throughput and produce 240,000 tons of copper annually [6]. - As of Q1 2025, Barrick reported cash and cash equivalents of approximately $4.1 billion and generated operating cash flows of around $1.2 billion, a 59% increase year-over-year [7]. - Barrick's dividend yield is 1.9% with a payout ratio of 28% and a five-year annualized dividend growth rate of about 5.1% [8]. - However, Barrick faces challenges with rising costs, with cash costs per ounce of gold and all-in-sustaining costs increasing by approximately 16% and 20% year-over-year, respectively [10]. Agnico Eagle Mines Limited - Agnico Eagle is focused on growth projects such as the Odyssey project and the Hope Bay project, which is expected to generate significant cash flow [11][12]. - Following its merger with Kirkland Lake Gold, Agnico Eagle has established itself as a high-quality senior gold producer with a strong pipeline of projects [13]. - In Q1 2025, Agnico Eagle's operating cash flow increased by roughly 33% year-over-year to $1,044 million, with free cash flows of $594 million, up around 50% [14][15]. - Agnico Eagle has a lower long-term debt-to-capitalization ratio of about 5% compared to Barrick's 12.3%, indicating lower financial risk [15]. - The company offers a dividend yield of 1.3% with a payout ratio of 32% and a five-year annualized dividend growth rate of 10.3% [15]. - Agnico Eagle's total cash costs per ounce of gold were $903, with projections for 2025 indicating an increase in costs [16]. Stock Performance and Valuation - Year-to-date, Barrick's stock has increased by 36.3%, while Agnico Eagle's stock has risen by 56.8%, outperforming the Zacks Mining – Gold industry's increase of 55.4% [17]. - Barrick is trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 10.73, representing a 23.8% discount to the industry average of 14.08X [20]. - Agnico Eagle trades at a premium with a forward earnings multiple of 20.27, above the industry average [21]. Growth Prospects - The consensus estimates for Barrick's 2025 sales and EPS imply year-over-year growth of 13.7% and 43.7%, respectively [22]. - Agnico Eagle's 2025 sales and EPS estimates suggest year-over-year growth of 23.6% and 43%, respectively [23]. - Both companies are well-positioned to capitalize on the current gold price environment, but Agnico Eagle's higher dividend growth rate and lower leverage may present better investment prospects [25].