成本大幅下降，无人物流车商业化落地加速｜活力中国调研行

Core Insights - The commercialization of unmanned logistics vehicles has entered stages 1 to 10, with leading manufacturers expected to see a significant increase in order volumes, expanding application scenarios from express delivery to retail distribution [1][6] - Level 4 autonomous vehicles are accelerating their application in the logistics sector, primarily in last-mile delivery [1] Market Overview - The stock market size for urban distribution vehicles is approximately 30 million units (excluding three-wheeled vehicles), with annual sales between 3 million to 4 million units [2] - The annual revenue for urban distribution logistics is around 3 trillion yuan, covering various scenarios such as express delivery, fresh produce, and cold chain logistics [2] Cost Efficiency - The cost of unmanned delivery vehicles has significantly decreased, with prices dropping from over 1 million yuan in 2018 to below 100,000 yuan today, allowing for cost recovery within a year [3][5] - In last-mile delivery, labor costs account for over 80% of expenses, while in trunk logistics, labor costs are about 10%, highlighting the potential for cost savings through automation [2] Technological Advancements - The shift from a multi-lidar and camera setup to a more cost-effective vision-based system has contributed to the reduction in hardware costs, with a projected decline of over 80% from 2023 to 2025 [5] - The new technology approach enhances safety and adaptability in various weather conditions, making it suitable for logistics applications [5] Policy Support - Government policies, including road rights opening and supportive management measures, are facilitating the application of unmanned vehicles in logistics, accelerating the establishment of standards and regulations [5]