Pre-Markets Climb on Rate Cut Visibility

Market Overview - Pre-market indexes are showing a slight increase, with the small-cap Russell 2000 up more than +1% [1] - The Dow is up +114 points, S&P 500 +14 points, Nasdaq +62 points, and Russell +25 points, with only S&P 500 and Nasdaq showing year-to-date gains [2] Economic Indicators - The Philly Fed manufacturing index for June is at -4.0, marking the third consecutive month of decline, with lower readings in business conditions, capital expenditures, new orders, and prices paid [3] - The Employment Index has dropped to -9.8, indicating a potential softening labor market in the U.S. [3][4] Federal Reserve Outlook - The decline in the Employment Index may create an opportunity for the Federal Reserve to consider lowering interest rates, although worse employment numbers would need to be observed first [4] Upcoming Economic Data - The U.S. Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) report for May is expected to show a marginally negative headline of -0.1%, improving from -1.0% in April [6] - The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) has recovered from Covid-era lows, indicating current economic conditions are improving [7] Future Market Expectations - A significant week for economic data is anticipated, including reports on the housing market, Services and Manufacturing PMI, Durable Goods, Jobless Claims, and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), which are crucial for future Fed monetary policy decisions [8]