美国5月领先经济指数小幅下滑 经济增长放缓信号增强

Group 1 - The Leading Economic Index (LEI) in the U.S. decreased by 0.1% in May 2025, reaching 99.0 points, continuing a significant decline from April's 1.4% drop [1] - Over the six months leading up to May, the LEI fell by a cumulative 2.7%, indicating a stronger downward trend compared to the previous period's 1.4% decline, suggesting a weakening economic growth momentum in the U.S. [1] - The decline in LEI has triggered a recession warning signal, despite the U.S. Conference Board not expecting a technical recession in 2025, but rather a slowdown in economic growth [2] Group 2 - The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) rose by 0.1% in May to 115.1 points, continuing a 0.2% increase from April, with a cumulative growth of 1.3% from November 2024 to May 2025 [2] - The CEI is composed of non-farm employment, personal income excluding government transfers, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial output, with industrial output being the only component that declined in May [2] - The Lagging Economic Index (LAG) increased by 0.4% in May to 119.6 points, continuing its upward trend after a 0.3% rise in April, indicating some improvement in certain lagging economic variables [2]