震荡区间收敛 积聚上行动力

Core Viewpoint - The current A-share market is experiencing limited volatility despite significant geopolitical events and the upcoming 2025 Lujiazui Forum, indicating a potential "turning point" in the market [1] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index has shown a narrow fluctuation of around 20 points with a volatility rate of approximately 0.5%, and trading volume remains steady at around 1.1 trillion yuan across the three markets [1] - After returning to 3,300 points in early February, the index attempted to challenge 3,400 points but faced resistance, leading to a period of narrow oscillation [1] - The index dropped below 3,100 points due to the trade war initiated by the U.S. but quickly rebounded, indicating resilience in the market [1] Structural Market Dynamics - Following the "9.24" central bank policy last year, the funding landscape in A-shares has changed significantly, making large declines less likely [2] - Despite the proximity to the 3,400-point mark, the lack of strong sectors capable of sustaining an upward trend limits the potential for a significant market rally [2] - The current market is characterized by rapid rotation among sectors, which diminishes the overall upward momentum of the index [2] Economic Support and Future Outlook - The government has implemented numerous policies to support the real economy, which are expected to gradually show effects [2] - Despite challenges from the trade war, the economy has maintained stable growth, showcasing its resilience [2] - As uncertainties in the market diminish and the real economy improves, the capital market's reforms and integrations will accumulate momentum for a potential market rise [2]